Orange County Register

The next-to-last week of the 2007 regular season started with a terrible decision and ended with a team facing a fascinating one.

Here’s my review of those two and every game in between:

Pittsburgh 41, St. Louis 24
Comment: I don’t know exactly why Torry Holt was screaming at Scott Linehan on the sideline. Among the possible subjects: Why Linehan didn’t go for it on fourth-and-6 from the Steelers 38 early in the fourth quarter. Forget the fact that the Rams were trailing by just a touchdown at the time, or that the 38 is in the heart of football’s “no man’s land” for field goals. Linehan should have gone for it because the Rams were 3-11 at the time. It’s the same reason Brian Billick should have gone on fourth-and-goal from the 1 at the end of the game the previous week at Miami. I hate it when coaches play not to lose. It’s even worse when they have nothing to lose and still do it.

Dallas 20, Carolina 13
Comment: NFL Network gets access that other networks don’t, and that allows its cameras to capture behind-the-scenes footage such as Terrell Owens hobbling down the corridor at Bank of America Stadium, no shoe or sock on his injured limb (which turned out to be a high ankle sprain), a Cowboys trainer on one side, Drew “Next Question” Rosenhaus on the other. It’s like Sideline Reporting Version 2.0, and it lets all of us play doctor, putting on our scrubs and stethoscopes and assessing the damage. Initial reaction, based on the footage (and supported by subsequent reports): T.O. will be good to go for Dallas’ first playoff game. That’s very good news for the Cowboys, whose offense isn’t the same without him. Just ask Jason Witten, who had to wonder where all those defenders came from after T.O. went down.

Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14
Comment: The headline at cbssports.com reads “Bengals stun Browns, clinch AFC North for Steelers.” But was it really that stunning? Win-loss records aside, is there that much of a talent disparity between the Browns and Bengals, if any? Both have deluxe passing games featuring big-armed quarterbacks and multiple receiving threats. Both have good-enough running games. Both have not-good-enough defenses. The biggest difference between the two is on the offensive line, where the Browns have gotten better and the Bengals worse (thanks in part to Cleveland signing OG Eric Steinbach away from Cincinnati). So why are the Browns 9-6 and the Bengals 6-9? Slightly easier schedule. Better record in close games. Taking opponents by surprise. Sometimes that’s all it takes.

Chicago 35, Green Bay 7
Comment: This game reminded me of the ’06 finale between the Bears and Packers, only the complete opposite. In that one, you’ll recall, the Bears had nothing to play for, Rex Grossman admitted he didn’t take the game as seriously as he should have, and the Packers romped, 26-7. The thing is, it didn’t have any negative impact whatsoever on the Bears, who reached the Super Bowl anyway. If anything, it might have served as a wake-up call, which is exactly how Brett Favre described Sunday’s game. The Packers still had home field at stake, but I’m not sure playing the NFC Championship Game in the mild weather of Dallas would be so terrible. They clearly struggled to pass the ball in windy, snowy Chicago, and the Cowboys have a more consistent power-running game. I still like the Packers’ chances should they meet – provided they can protect their punter.

Indianapolis 38, Houston 15
Comment: Tony Dungy treated fantasy owners everywhere to an early Christmas present by letting Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark play. (I’m adding Dungy to my holiday card list next year.) Still missing Marvin Harrison and some offensive linemen for the entire game, and Joseph Addai for part of it, the Colts again showed the sort of plug-and-play resourcefulness that helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls. The Colts also showed the Texans how far they still have to go. Minimally, Houston needs to figure out its QB situation (Sage Rosenfels’ inaccuracy made Matt Schaub look good, but Schaub can’t stay healthy), draft a running back defenses have to respect and beef up its secondary. Even then, the Texans would have to leapfrog the Colts, Jaguars and Titans in the NFL’s toughest division.

Detroit 25, Kansas City 20
Comment: Lions RB Kevin Jones absolutely killed a buddy of mine in Weeks 15 and 16 – i.e., the fantasy playoffs. Check out these stat lines: Week 15 – 5 carries, 16 yards; 1 reception, 2 yards. Week 16: 8-15, 1-6. Jones contributed one fantasy point each week, and it’s just about impossible to win in most formats when you’re getting that little out of one of your starting backs. And now, with Jones suffering a torn ACL (and being injury-prone anyway), the Lions will be on the prowl for a new starting running back. Arkansas’ Darren McFadden would be a dramatic upgrade, but you could say that about a lot of teams. Besides, the Lions weren’t nearly bad enough this season to get him. (They were just bad enough to miss the playoffs, agonize their long-suffering fans again and possibly cost some assistant coaches their jobs.)

N.Y. Giants 38, Buffalo 21
Comment: Just when you think the Giants are dead – and you think you’ve made a horrible pick after ignoring the impact of Kevin Everett’s return to Ralph Wilson Stadium – they rise from the ashes (or in this case snowflakes). Ugly but effective, and here they are again, headed for the playoffs, just as likely to upset Seattle or Tampa Bay as lose, 41-0. From the Buffalo side, the Giants defense and the weather exposed overrated rookie QB Trent Edwards. Take out Edwards’ four-touchdown game against Miami, which would struggle to win the BCS Championship, and his TD-INT ratio is 3-8. His completion percentage the past three weeks, in inclement weather, is 40.2. You have to have a laser, rocket arm to succeed in blustery outposts such as Buffalo. Edwards doesn’t have one.

Jacksonville 49, Oakland 11
Comment: On NFL Network on Sunday night, Rich Eisen asked Deion Sanders which team was the biggest threat to New England. Sanders’ reply: Jacksonville – and it had nothing to do with Sanders’ admiration for David Garrard’s wardrobe (OK, maybe a little). By beating good teams such as Pittsburgh, nearly beating great ones such as Indy and annihilating the teams they’re supposed to beat, Jacksonville firmly has established itself as the AFC’s third-best team and the wild card you’d least like to face. I still don’t think the Jaguars are quite ready yet, given their lack of a true go-to receiving threat and Garrard’s dearth of playoff experience. Then again, it didn’t stop Tom Brady.

Philadelphia 38, New Orleans 23
Comment: I hate to second-guess Sean Payton again, but I was shocked he didn’t try at least one passing play from the 1-yard line in what became the game-changing (and probably postseason-preventing) goal-line stand. Yes, Marques Colston was dinged, but don’t you still want the ball in the hands of your best player – Drew Brees – in that situation? Brees defended Payton’s play-calling, which is exactly what you’d expect a team player to do. But Brees is also a fierce competitor, so you know he was steaming inside. The sequence also showed just how much the Saints miss Deuce McAllister and how little margin for error they have on offense because of a wretched defense that needs more than a few tweaks.

Arizona 30, Atlanta 27 (OT)
Comment: The woebegone Falcons couldn’t even win the overtime coin toss! But I’m not here to pile on the Falcons; I’m here to talk about the Cardinals’ pending QB controversy. Kurt Warner already has campaigned for the job in ’08, and he has proved more than capable with 24 touchdown passes in 13 games (and just 10 starts). Matt Leinart has shown flashes of brilliance, typical young-quarterback inconsistency and an inability to stay healthy, having failed to finish either of his two NFL seasons. So what do you do if you’re Ken Whisenhunt – go with the guy who gives you a better chance of winning now in a winnable division, or think long-term and go back to the guy who’s supposed to be the cornerstone of the franchise? If Leinart makes what ESPN’s Bill Simmons likes to call “The Leap” next summer, it’s an easy decision. If not …

San Francisco 21, Tampa Bay 19
Comment: Speaking of QB controversies, could we be headed for one in San Francisco, too? Why not? Who’s to say journeyman Shaun Hill isn’t the West Coast version of Derek Anderson to Alex Smith’s Tim Couch? Despite two terrible seasons out of three, I still believe Smith will develop. He’s still a pup, not turning 24 until May. He also has had three offensive coordinators in three years. There’s a reason Peyton Manning is so good (besides talent and work ethic): He basically has run the same system since he has been in the league. Of course, if the 49ers fire Mike Nolan or force him to change coordinators, that’ll make it 4 for 4 for Smith, and we still might not know for certain a year from now if he has what it takes.

Seattle 27, Baltimore 6
Comment: The most noteworthy development in this game, by far, was Shaun Alexander’s mini-breakout. Seventy-three rushing yards (on 13 carries) and a receiving touchdown would have been considered mediocre in Alexander’s 2005 MVP heyday, but this season they represent hope. Alexander came on strong after an injury-plagued ’06 and nearly led the Seahawks past the Bears in the divisional round with 108 yards and two scores. If he is indeed as sound as he indicated Sunday, he presents an additional set of problems for defenses – enough to at least give the Seahawks a chance to pull a second-round upset.

New England 28, Miami 7
Comment: Winning but not dominating is an ideal way for the Patriots to finish this season. Every average performance (for them) leaves the door ajar for Bill Belichick to harp on something and keep his troops sharp. This week he can emphasize turnovers after the Patriots committed four, and better second-half play after they went scoreless after halftime. Plus, when he says his team still has room for improvement, it won’t sound disingenuous, or at least not as disingenuous. (Side note: Sometimes Vegas is just uncannily accurate. The spread in this game was 22 points – and the Patriots won by 21. The spread in the Detroit-Kansas City game was 4.5 – and the Lions won by five after converting a late field goal.)

Tennessee 10, N.Y. Jets 6
Comment: Thanks to the Browns’ loss, the Titans have a win-and-they’re-in game, and they have a very good chance of winning with the Colts likely to rest their regulars early in Week 17. A victory also would earn the Titans this distinction: team most likely to lose in the first round. The Titans are not a well-rounded ballclub. They have the fewest points (285, or 19.0 per game) of any team that has qualified for the playoffs or could qualify. They also have only one victory over a team that currently has a winning record – the Jaguars, in Week 1, when they weren’t close to the team they are now. Without a fully developed passing game, the Titans simply can’t keep up with the AFC’s elite.

Washington 32, Minnesota 21
Comment: My loyalist readers will remember that I pegged the Redskins as my surprise team of the season. So why did I pick against them the past two weeks? First of all, I couldn’t figure out how Sean Taylor’s death would affect them, and my best guess – an initial inspirational wave, followed by emotional emptiness – was wrong. Second, they weren’t the same team anymore. Besides Taylor, these Redskins are without four other significant starters: quarterback Jason Campbell, guard Randy Thomas (their second-best offensive lineman), cornerback Carlos Rogers and linebacker Rocky McIntosh. Campbell’s injury actually has helped them, as backup Todd Collins (near right) has provided steady, mistake-free play during a potentially stressful period. Major credit must go to Joe Gibbs, whose tactical errors have drawn criticism in this space but whose overall handling of his team down the stretch has been commendable.

San Diego 23, Denver 3
Comment: The Chargers are in a delicate situation. They lock up the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a victory (or a Pittsburgh loss) next week. Most seasons, there’s little difference between being the third or fourth seed in a conference; you still start with a home game and play the next one on the road. But in the AFC this year, as noted above, there’s a huge difference between the No. 5 seed (Jacksonville) and the No. 6 (Tennessee or Cleveland). Additionally, a wild-card victory would mean a trip to Indianapolis in Round 2 – hardly a picnic, but not Foxboro, either. If I’m Norv Turner, I play to win – and hope the Raiders put up as much a fight as the Broncos.

- Michael Lev, The Orange County Register

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